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AdvertisementIt could be all about recessionsSince the 1950s, whenever the US economy fell into a recession, the rate of working men tended to suffer a lasting blow. AdvertisementWhy have recessions appeared to have such a lasting impact on working men? The strong recovery of men working after the pandemic recession could be due to the unique nature of this downturn — which tanked an otherwise healthy economy. And of course, some lucky prime-age men aren't working because they've had a lot of financial success — and already retired. Deciphering how much these explanations have fueled the decline of working men could be worthy of further explanation, the economists said.
Persons: , It's, Abigail Wozniak, Wozniak, David Autor, There's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama's, Elise Gould, Gould, aren't, we've, John M, Coglianese, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington Post, of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, BLS, Economic, Economic Policy Institute, Federal Reserve
A growing group of America's young people are not in school, not working, or not looking for work. They're called "disconnected youth" or "opportunity youth," and their ranks have been growing for nearly three decades. Experts say it's not just work and school; this group is often also disconnected from a sense of purpose. Palmer added that those with limited access to transportation, people with disabilities, and young parents were also more susceptible. Disconnected young people don't have that luxury."
Persons: , Destiny, She's, she's, They're, Kristen Lewis, Lewis, hadn't, there's, Sen, Tim Kaine, who's, Joseph, he's, hasn't, he'd, Ashley Palmer, Palmer, Sarah Nunley, Nunley, Veronica, There's, Lucchesi, they're Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Social Science Research Council, Survey, University of Minnesota's, National Center for Education Statistics, Walmart, Texas Christian University, Ivy League Locations: Florida, Alabama, Indiana, Silicon Valley, YOLO, Texas
Markets wary of intervention as yen struggles at 155 level
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Having traded in a tight range over the past few days, a buoyant dollar finally broke above the 155 yen level for the first time since 1990 in the previous session, and was last steady at 155.34 yen in early Asia trade. The breach of the 155 yen level comes as the BOJ meets to discuss monetary policy, though expectations are for the central bank to keep its short-term interest rate target unchanged following last month's landmark exit from negative rates. "We expect the BOJ meeting to deliver a marginally hawkish hold outcome," said Carl Ang, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. Continued expectations of gradual policy tightening and a low terminal policy rate make it difficult for the yen to appreciate significantly, even if at historically depressed levels." The dollar steadied at 105.79 against a basket of currencies, pulling away from a nearly two-week low hit in the previous session.
Persons: Carl Ang, Kazuo Ueda, Justin Smirk Organizations: Bank of Japan, MFS Investment Management, Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Australia
That rate of rapid wealth growth has never happened before in the data series' history, per the analysis, and it comes after wealth growth remained relatively stagnant for young Americans pre-pandemic. This data, as the authors of the CAP analysis note, suggests that wealth gains weren't just reserved for the top-earning millennials since both median and average wealth grew. "This suggests that the strong wealth growth for younger Americans is broad-based and not the result of strong growth of a handful of wealthy younger households," the authors write. As that report notes, financial assets were a major component of younger Americans' wealth growing. "We need to keep this robust labor market going and Congress needs to set its sights on younger Americans' greatest affordability challenge: housing," Duke said.
Persons: , Gen X, Brendan Duke, Christian Weller, X, millennials, Duke, BI's Noah Sheidlower Organizations: Service, Center for American Progress, Federal, Business, Boomers, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, millennials, Liberty Street, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: millennials, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
India's unorganized sector, which is made up of millions of small businesses that are privately owned, make up about 93% of the country's total workforce. As many as 32% of the respondents said increasing unemployment was the key reason why they would not elect the BJP again. India's Labour Ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC's queries pertaining to the country's unemployment situation. Rajan, who was speaking about how to make India an advanced economy at the George Washington University, said: "Unemployment numbers are high, disguised unemployment is even higher. A slowdown in hiring in India's huge information technology sector is also to blame for the lack of well-paying, white-collar jobs.
Persons: Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi, Modi, Gandhi, , Manmohan Singh, Arun Kumar, Lokniti, joblessness, Kumar, Raghuram Rajan, Rajan Organizations: DELHI, International Labour Organisation, Institute of Human, Goods, Services Tax, Jawahar Lal Nehru, CNBC, ILO, Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress, BJP, Modi, India's Labour Ministry, Former Reserve Bank of India, George Washington University, Labor Locations: India, Bihar, New Delhi
"The stars have aligned for India in terms of demographics, population and market movements. Peeyush Mittal, portfolio manager at Matthews Asia, agrees with the consensus that Modi will win a majority once again — which would be a "non-event" for markets. Conrad Saldanha, portfolio manager at the Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Equity Fund, agrees. Among the companies on his watch are power equipment player Bharat Heavy Electricals and engineering conglomerate Thermax , amid an expected expansion in power generation capacity. According to FactSet data, 24 of the 26 analysts covering the stock have a buy or overweight rating on it.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Neil Bahal, Peeyush Mittal, Modi, Mittal, Conrad Saldanha, Neuberger Berman, Bharat, Neuberger Berman's Saldanha, Saldanha Organizations: South, Bombay Stock Exchange, CNBC Pro, , Matthews Asia, Reserve Bank of, India Fund, Neuberger, Markets Equity Fund, Cummins India, Investor, Bharat Electronics, ICICI, HDFC, IndusInd Bank, Apollo Locations: Hong Kong, India, Reserve Bank of India, Saldanha
I want to protect further downside in the broader U.S. equity market despite the fact that S & P 500 has had an acute drop of more than 5% off its recent 2024 highs. I do believe that we are still in a bull market, but the headwinds are strong in the current market conditions. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Lastly, markets are contending with corporate earnings season. Per my friends at Factset, the S & P 500's valuation on a forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.6. DISCLOSURES: (Long this spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY .
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Big Tech, Trust Locations: Israel, Iran, Factset
More people are looking for a new job, and they have high salary expectations. The lowest average pay people would be willing to accept a new job reached $81,822 as of March, a new series high since 2014. That's according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest consumer expectations survey, which is fielded every four months. But to live comfortably by traditional budgeting advice, the average person needs to earn upwards of $89,000 — closer to the latest data on salary expectations — according to a recent analysis from SmartAsset. And despite a hiring slowdown, ZipRecruiter data shows more companies are actively recruiting to hire for open roles, and they're also extending more counteroffers to keep employees from quitting.
Persons: Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Labor Department
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStructural changes are needed to get the economy growing again, says South Africa central bank headSpeaking to CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF Spring Meetings, Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, discusses his country's economy and what's needed to improve the growth and inflation picture.
Persons: Karen Tso, Lesetja Kganyago Organizations: Reserve Bank of Locations: South Africa, Reserve Bank of South Africa
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Dollar firm, yen under watch ahead of key US CPI release
  + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The inflation data follows a strong jobs report last Friday that blew past forecasts, raising questions on how soon and how much the central bank will cut rates this year. On the yen, Wednesday's CPI data will be "a big test for Japanese authorities," Kong added. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, held firm at 104.12. The kiwi climbed as high as $0.6077 versus the U.S. dollar, its strongest since March 21, before flattening at $0.60595.
Persons: Carol Kong, Kong, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Reserve Bank of New, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Treasury, Traders, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, China
Despite Thursday's declines, the S & P 500 is only 2% from last week's record highs. The surprise isn't that the S & P 500 dropped Thursday. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months First-quarter earnings estimates for the S & P 500 have slipped to an expected gain of 5.1%, down from an anticipated increase of 7.2% on Jan. 1, according to LSEG. Since earnings are what ultimately moves stocks, the question is not "What would cause a modest 2% to 5% decline?" To do that, market participants would need to believe that earnings estimates were off significantly.
Persons: Daniel Kahneman, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, Neel Kashkari, it's, John Butters, Charles Schwab Organizations: Economic Sciences, Israel's, Federal Reserve Bank of, FactSet Locations: Gaza, Iran, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
How India is challenging China as Asia's tech powerhouse
  + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Arjun Kharpal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +30 min
New Delhi has sought to woo foreign tech companies and has been increasingly successful, with giants like Apple increasing their presence in the country. Tom Chitty: For years China has been Asia's tech powerhouse where the world's electronics and some of the biggest companies on the planet are located. And I think India is in the very early stages, to put it quite bluntly, of trying to do that. Tom Chitty: India have got an election this year as well, which is going to be interesting to see what happens there. You know, India has aligned itself slightly more to the countries that are currently a bit more anti-China, shall we say?
Persons: Tom Chitty, Arjun Kharpal, It's, Let's, I'm, Arjun, You'll, We're, we've, what's, gunning, Narendra Modi, it's, Tom, Modi, Trump, Apple, COVID, there's, Taiwan's, that's, Karen Tso, China's, Tim Cook, Raghuram Rajan, We've, feasibly, India's, let's, he's, you've, we'll, I've, We'll Organizations: Apple, CNBC, China, India's, Foxconn, Micron, Tata Electronics, Taiwan's Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp, Reserve Bank of India, CCP, Samsung, Bain, India, London Locations: China, Tencent, Asia, India, Delhi, Washington, Beijing, American, COVID, U.S, Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Bangalore, Goa, Kolkata, Mumbai, Europe, Silicon, New York, Germany
Asia-Pacific markets were largely set to fall on Friday, mirroring moves on Wall Street after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled worries that the central bank could hold off on rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari cast doubts on Thursday over the central bank cutting rates at all if inflation remained sticky. Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude surpassing $86 a barrel to test six-month highs. Brent crude prices also set a new six-month high of $90.65. S&P will also release its business activity numbers for Hong Kong, while the Reserve Bank of India will announce its rate decision later in the day.
Persons: Neel Kashkari Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Brent, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Hong Kong
Average 30-year mortgage rates ticked up above 6.50% for the first time in more than a week, according to Zillow data. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, mortgage rates should ease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.11% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester, Mester, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
In particular, the researchers looked at a group dubbed "disconnected youth," who aren't working and are also not in school. As of 2022, disconnected youth comprised 13% of this age group; that share has been rising overall since 1998, according to calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. AdvertisementYounger Americans are facing stagnant incomesThe Dallas Fed found that, even after a post-pandemic dip, the rate of disconnected youth has increased since the end of the 1990s. AdvertisementAnd the number of young adults with no income has been on the rise; in 1990, around one in five young adults said they had no wage or salary income. Are you or were you a "disconnected youth," or supporting one?
Persons: , Louis, Gen, Zers, Louis Fed's, Louis Fed, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers Organizations: Service, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute for Economic Equity, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Louis Fed, National Health, Blacks, Louis, Louis Fed's Institute for Economic Equity
The Reserve Bank of Australia building in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, Sept. 6, 2021. Australia's central bank intends to change the way it provides liquidity to the banking system, moving to one that provides ample liquidity through regular money market operations. Australia's central bank intends to change the way it provides liquidity to the banking system, moving to one that provides ample liquidity through regular money market operations. In a speech on the plumbing of monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said the central bank would end its current system of setting a floor for rates with excess reserves and an exchange settlement, or ES, rate. "Under the ample reserves system, the supply of reserves can rise and fall in line with changes in demand, with minimal effects on the cash rate and other money market rates," Kent said.
Persons: Christopher Kent, Kent Organizations: Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Sydney, Australia, Australia's
Some American universities estimate their total cost of attendance will exceed $90,000 next year. Tuition and fees at universities have continued to climb, even when adjusted for inflation. The result may be a generation of students wondering if college is worth it. AdvertisementThe price of getting a degree has continued to climb at American universities, with the cost of some schools reaching a new threshold. Out-of-state and in-state tuition and fees at public universities have risen by about 38% and 56%, adjusted for inflation, over the same period.
Persons: , Gen, Ana Hernández Kent, Louis Organizations: Service, New York University, Tufts, University of Pennsylvania, Yale, NYU, Board, U.S . News, for Higher, of Education, Universities, Institute for Higher Education, Institute for Economic Equity, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: U.S
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe price of getting a degree has continued to climb at American universities, with the cost of some schools reaching a new threshold. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Out-of-state and in-state tuition and fees at public universities have risen about 38% and 56%, respectively, inflation-adjusted over the same period. In a Business Insider and YouGov survey conducted last year, 46% of Gen Z respondents said they don't think college is worth the cost.
Persons: , Gen, Ana Hernández Kent, Louis Organizations: Service, New York University, Tufts, University of Pennsylvania, Yale, Business, NYU, Board, U.S News, of Higher, of Education, Universities, Institute of Higher, Institute for Economic Equity, Federal Reserve Bank of St
India's fondness for gold has neither benefited its economy nor generated decent returns for investors, BlackRock Founder and Chairman Larry Fink said in his annual letter to shareholders of the world's largest asset manager. Nor has investing in gold helped the country's economy," Fink said. The country's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, purchased 4.7 tons of gold in February, taking its gold reserves to an all-time high of 817 tons, according to data from World Gold Council. Kavita Chacko, research head of India at World Gold Council, however, said recent record highs in gold prices could hurt demand for the precious metal in India. Indians' love for gold aside, the country's stock markets have been one of the biggest gainers in the Asia-Pacific region with major institutional investors positive on Indian stocks that have hit record highs multiple times this year.
Persons: Larry Fink, " Fink, Fink, Kavita Chacko, Chacko, — CNBC's Lee Ying Shan Organizations: BlackRock, Reserve Bank of India, World Gold, World Gold Council Locations: India, American, Asia, Pacific
NEW YORK (AP) — It may not be too “appeeling,” but the price tags of some bananas are rising by a few cents. Trader Joe's recently upped the price for a single banana to 23 cents, a 4-cent — or 21% — increase from the grocer's previous going rate for the fruit that had remained unchanged for over 20 years. In contrast to other foods more heavily impacted by inflation, bananas have stayed relatively affordable over time — with average global prices never exceeding more than about 80 cents per pound (0.45 kilograms). Still, banana prices have seen some jumps in recent years. In the U.S., the cost of a pound of bananas averaged at about 63 cents last month.
Persons: Joe's, , we’ve, Louis, ” Neil Saunders, Saunders Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, United Nations, Food, Agriculture Organization Locations: Monrovia , California, U.S,
The shipping container is a logistics marvel that can affordably move thousands of items from hundreds of different companies all around the globe. Supply chain disruptionsDisruptions to global trade can have major impacts on shortages and inflation, causing serious ramifications for American households and businesses. Indeed, inflation cooled alongside the bounce back of the supply chain, according to a White House analysis of the U.S. economy. [It's] an inefficiency born not of container shipping but just of the nature of the global economy." Watch the video above to learn more about how shipping containers enable global trade, why China dominates the shipping industry and what happens after a container shortage.
Persons: Simon Heaney, John Fossey, Good Hope, John McCown, nonresident, McCown, Goetz Alebrand, " Heaney, Heaney Organizations: Drewry, CNBC, Supply, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Center for Maritime Strategy, Federal Maritime Commission, Americas, DHL Global Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, U.S, Iran, Good, Africa, China, Ukraine, Asia
At the simplest level, labor productivity is how much output (widgets, meals, spreadsheet computation) one person can complete in an hour. Employers were running around with fishnets trying to find people, and workers used their leverage. By contrast, the late 1990s were a period of higher productivity growth and underestimated growth, starting the year at 2% but ending closer to 4%. But it's probably too soon to be thinking about these factors as the main driver of recent productivity growth. The investment implications of this are clear: Stronger productivity growth implies a higher speed limit for the economy.
Persons: , it's, we'll Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, Labor, P Global, Manufacturing, Capital, Employers, downturns, Professional Locations: Silicon Valley, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Asia-Pacific markets were set to fall ahead of central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia. All eyes will be on the BOJ amid expectations that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy after 17 years. Economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to raise its rates to 0% from the current -0.1%. Separately, the RBA is forecast to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for its third meeting in a row.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific
European markets are heading for a negative open Tuesday as global investors look ahead to the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Recent inflation reports could prompt the central bank to signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. Fed funds futures currently forecast a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, it's been a dramatic night for Asia-Pacific markets after investors assessed the latest central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The BOJ officially ended its negative interest rate policy at its March meeting, hiking interest rates for the first time in 17 years and raising its benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%.
Persons: it's Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: U.S ., Asia, Pacific
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